Revisiting 2008's Predictions-Pretty Much Everyone Was Wrong
This is the time of year when PR machines roll out their best pundits to pontificate on The Future. I'm not sure what qualifies one to predict the unknown, but 2008 was certainly more unpredictable than years past, reminding us of just how futile those prophecies are. In light of the Economists' recent apology for being way off on last year's economic predictions ("About 2008: sorry."), I've rounded up some other 2008 forecasts for private equity, lending, fundraising and even venture capital. I think they serve as a nice a measuring stick for how seriously to take the current predictions for 2009: With a giant grain of salt. "The Lending and M&A Markets Will Return In The Second Half of '08" This prediction wins the most erroneously off the mark award. I saw one report that even predicted $10 billion deals by the end of the year. To be fair, no one could have foreseen what happened in September (except, say, Peter Schiff). It could even be argued that things were starting to look positive, or at least flat, leading up to Lehman.
